Welcome back to Chief Disruptor Insights, your invaluable monthly updates on disruptive trends and technologies, sharing practical insights alongside member commentary to empower decision-making.

2024 was a year of enormous change. But events this week in Washington DC have heralded a period of even more dramatic change for us all. Experts and commentators have been warning for some time that the inauguration of President Donald Trump will deliver a huge shift in the status quo and the introduction of a new diplomatic and economic era in the US administration. One thing’s for sure, the impact of these changes will ripple across the globe, with inevitable consequences for UK businesses.

Our first Chief Disruptor Insights poll of 2025 was launched at the beginning of the year in the context of uncertainty about the decisions that will be taken by the Trump administration, and the extent to which UK businesses will feel the impact of those decisions. We wanted to explore with our members which of the following four factors will most affect businesses in 2025: political, economic and trade, conflict and security, and disruptive technology. Business leaders will need to be able to pivot quickly to minimise the impact of or better yet, capitalise on, these disruptions in 2025.

‘Disruptive technology’ was the leading response to our poll, signifying the transformative potential of fast-moving, emerging technologies. Only last week, we saw the importance of AI to the future growth of the UK economy, with the launch of the UK government’s AI Implementation Action Plan. In it, Keir Starmer pledged annual benefits to the country of £47 billion and more than 13,000 jobs over the next decade. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated that it could boost productivity by up to 1.5% annually. No doubt the respondents to our poll will want to take home their share of this lucrative pie.

Beyond the impact of disruptive technologies on productivity or efficiency, many have concerns about the wider impact on jobs, roles and human experiences in the workplace. Disruptive technologies such as AI are reshaping roles and experiences at work, sparking debate in the media on their impact. In our April Chief Disruptor Insights poll which asked, “Will disruptive technologies augment and elevate human experiences, replace humans or innovate and create new jobs?”, 100% of respondents took an optimistic stance, viewing these technologies as tools to augment human capabilities or create new jobs rather than as a threat. Whether the aim is to innovate, to transform, to better serve customers or to protect their business from cyber threats, the ability to leverage disruptive technologies is clearly key to competitive advantage in 2025. (Join us at Defence AI Connect 2025 to find out more about AI adoption challenges and opportunities in Defence)

‘Politics’ was the second highest response to our poll. Elections, changes in leadership, and geopolitical tensions can result in unpredictable shifts in policies, tariffs, or even the nationalisation of foreign assets. Shifting government policies such as trade restrictions and industrial policies will influence many organisations to re-evaluate their global footprints. Many UK leaders are preparing to assess the impact of Trump’s ‘America First’ policy on their businesses. Many are concerned about the economic impact of President Trump’s promise to implement 10 to 20% tariffs on all goods coming into the US, rising to 60% for goods from China. We spoke with Pedro Cosa, Former Chief Data and Analysis Officer at British Gas, who shared his thoughts on the impact of political change on businesses in the UK.

“In 2025, the political landscape will be significantly shaped by Donald Trump's agenda and the anticipated shifts of the new U.S. administration in critical areas such as the economy, international relations, environmental policy, and social welfare. These changes are poised to not only affect the United States but also have substantial ramifications globally. We will also monitor the big trend around the polarisation of the political spectrum and the significant growth of nationalists parties. Locally, we will observe how the UK Labour Party will continue implementing their policies for change and see if they deliver the expected economic growth.“

‘Economy and trade’ was next highest in our poll. It can be difficult to un-couple the inter-relationship between ‘economy and trade’ and the other factors in our poll, in particular ‘politics’. The UK has strong economic ties with the US, so a change in the political leadership there will of course impact the UK economy. The US is the UK’s largest trading partner, and this year the UK exported £60 billion of goods to the US which could be hit with additional taxes. Uncertainty about Trump’s policies regarding international trade, taxation, and corporate regulation has created global market volatility; both a threat and an opportunity for UK businesses. In a recent report, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research calculated that higher tariffs on the UK could result in a 0.8% drop in GDP growth next year, resulting in a £21.5 billion loss to the economy by 2025.

An article published recently by the BBC also argued that these tariffs would push up inflation, forcing the Bank of England (BoE) to keep interest rates higher for longer. The piece reports that Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has warned a second, broader round of Trump tariffs could lead to higher inflation and unemployment in the UK, and stressed the government has made extensive preparations. Overall, this policy would mean the cost of government borrowing would increase, with a wider impact on public and private investment in the UK.

‘Conflict and security’ was the least popular choice in our poll. With recent events in Syria and the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, geo-political instability has reached a new high. A new leader’s foreign policy is likely to change international defence relationships and shake global stability. As referred to earlier, the new US administration’s foreign policy agenda will depart from the status quo established by the Biden administration and many are questioning the impact on international security. The pursuit of an ‘America First’ isolationist agenda has raised substantial concerns regarding the reliability of US security guarantees and support, which could encourage hostile threats to pursue more aggressive actions against European NATO members, particularly in Eastern Europe. The UK and other European countries could also face increased defence costs if Trump reduces support for NATO. Pedro Cosa also told us,

“The year 2024 was marked by significant instability in conflict and security, and the outlook for 2025 appears equally challenging. The resolution of ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East, seems distant as we start 2025. However, the election of Donald Trump as US president may alter the dynamics within the first few months of his administration, potentially reshaping international relations and conflict resolution strategies.”

But security threats don’t only exist in the physical realm, and the cybersecurity threat is a huge security concern for many business leaders. In September we explored the extent to which these developments are changing the nature of the cybersecurity threat on the ground, asking Chief Disruptor members, ”Which of the following Cybersecurity threats pose the greatest threat to your organisation?” Out of the four options in our poll, ‘Internal data breach’, ‘State-sponsored’, ‘Opportunistic’ and ‘AI deep fake’, the highest response was perhaps surprisingly the more prosaic of the four options; ‘internal data breach’. Lucrative low-hanging-fruit attacks, such as phishing and ransomware, will continue to be a major concern in 2025. However, the capabilities of attackers are evolving at a tremendous pace, changing the scale at which traditional attacks can be launched and leading to the emergence of new threat actors. This is in large part thanks to advances in generative AI and inevitably the incidents of deepfakes will rise in 2025 as attacks that once required a considerable amount of time and investment can now be completed in a fraction of the time.

To be successful in 2025, leaders will need to keep a cool head to juggle multiple strategic priorities, simultaneously keeping abreast of rapidly evolving technologies whilst remaining attuned to policy changes and shifts in international trade and finance. With developments disrupting the operating environment daily, they’ll need to be fully prepared to adapt seize emerging opportunities and take prompt action to tackle threats. As leaders continue to face complex challenges and opportunities in 2025, the safe space of a dedicated community will be more important than ever to help leaders do just that. We hope you will join us at our forthcoming activities including breakfast club discussions, dinners and forums.